Preview of Amazon’s Q3 results from a seller’s perspective.

October 21, 2015

ChannelAdvisor Scot Wingo By Scot Wingo

Thursday, October 22nd after the market closes, Amazon will announce their Q3 2015 results.  This comes on the heels of eBay’s Q3, which is the day before. ChannelAdvisor’s SSS growth y/y for Amazon for Q3 came in at 24.7% which was up from Q2’s pace. According to comScore e-commerce is growing at 15%, so it will be interesting to see how Amazon comes in against those baselines.

Last Q, Q2 2015, Amazon’s EGM GMV grew at 32%, which was up from 29% in Q1. This is quite impressive at their scale.

Here’s a dashboard of the Q3 key metrics we’ll be watching from Amazon:

amzn_q3_15_preview_dashboard

What are we watching for from the results/conference call:

  • Active users – In Q2 active users were 285m and grew 14% which was flat from the previous Q.  We watch active buyers very closely for Amazon as that tends to be the best indicator for how the next year is going to go.
  • Prime Day – Amazon’s Prime Day was in Q3, so we’ll be watching for any call-outs about how that went.
  • Health of the consumer – Both Walmart and Macys have lowered expectations due to macro consumer spending trends.  It will be interesting to see if this is impacting Amazon at all or if it’s isolated to those businesses.
  • Holiday shipping – We are hearing from retailers that FedEx and UPS are planning for capacity to be very tight this holiday season.  Since Amazon was hit with the ‘Shipping Debacle of 2013’, it will be interesting to see if they give any color of how they anticipate this holiday will go from a capacity standpoint.
  • Fulfillment centers – We’re always eager to hear about any new initiatives or build-outs happening on this side of the Amazon house.

Conclusion

On the heels of a very strong Q2, everyone will be closely watching Amazon’s Q3 results for continued acceleration and to see how everything is setting up for the very important Holiday 2015 period.  Also, if Amazon isn’t seeing the same headwinds that retailers like Walmart and Macys are reporting, perhaps that indicates that those retailers have more of an ‘Amazon problem’ than a ‘consumer problem’ which has been our thesis for a while.

This blog was written by Scot Wingo, Executive Chairman, ChannelAdvisor.