Early read on Holiday 2011 – November trends MTD

November 22, 2011

ChannelAdvisor ChannelAdvisor By ChannelAdvisor

This is the first part of our detailed scheduled Holiday 2011 coverage. For details on the coverage plan and the seven themes we’ll be looking at, be sure to read this post first.

In this post we compare the same-store-sales for November 1-21 2011 compared to the exact dates last year to get an early read on any Holiday 2011 trends.

Macro trends

Overall our November MTD SSS were up 28% which bodes well going into the CyberFive and is exceeding our 17% forecast.  It’s important to note that this increase could just signify that consumers have pulled-forward their holiday shopping. We’ll have to wait to see how December comes in before we make a complete call on the holiday.

A note on timing:  Since we’re looking at a shorter period than normal, it is important to note that historically when you look at Nov 1-21, 2011 vs. 2010.  Last year that timeframe was Monday-Sat and this year it’s Tues-Sunday so we missed a Monday.

Channel Trends

  • eBay – eBay had a strong showing at 19%, a nice upward move from the October SSS.
  • Amazon – Amazon continued on a strong track coming in at 65% y/y growth, which is down slightly from the October 80% trend, primarily due to the November timing by our estimates. (re-read macro trends)
  • Search – Search surged the most coming in at 46% y/y growth.
  • CSE – Bucking the trend of being down y/y, CSE came in at positive 3% growth.

Geographic Trends

We’re getting a lot of questions about Europe.  A look at the data doesn’t show anything meaningful at this point, but keep in mind that the EU holiday spending doesn’t really kick off until the first week of December, so stay tuned there.

Mobile Trends

We did see that Mobile usage in November was up substantially from October – it came in at a 20% increase m/m which is a huge movement.

Up next – Thanksgiving ‘early read’

Our next update will be on Thanksgiving between bites of turkey and NFL games.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone!!!

SeekingAlpha Disclosure – I am long Google and Amazon. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.