While working on tomorrow’s webinar, I re-read eBay’s Q2 results.
They reported that 43% of eBay’s business is now fixed-price. That would make eBay ‘fixed-price’ effectively a $27B marketplace. Analysts guesstimate Amazon’s 3P GMV at $4-6B.
Also, eBay’s definition of fixed-price understates it substantially I believe. In eBay’s definition it would be store listings, fixed-price listings and auction/bin where the user chose BIN.
Think of how many auctions close with one bidder. In my mind those are transactions that should/could have been fixed-price. I’d say that something like 40% of the auctions I checked in our dataset have one bidder. With this expanded Wingo definition of fixed-price, I bet fixed-price is already 60-70% of eBay’s GMV. Also, eBay’s 43% is by GMV, not transactions. Most Motors/passenger vehicles are still auction-style listings and media is dominated by fixed-price so auctions I’d bet have a much higher ASP than fixed-price, so if you looked at the %’s by transaction you could get this number into the high 70%’s.
I guess my point is that eBay maybe much more down the fixed-price path than everyone realises….
SeekingAlpha disclosure: I am long google and ebay