AMAZON LEAK: Amazon Kindle Fire already has 250k pre-orders!

October 5, 2011

ChannelAdvisor ChannelAdvisor By ChannelAdvisor

As everyone knows, Amazon is super tight lipped about sales of Kindle, Prime membership, etc.  But the folks over at Cult of Mac/Android have secured a screenshot of Amazon’s internal order management system called Alaska (Availability Lookup and Sku Aggregator) that you can see in the original post here and I’ve provided here for you to look at as well.

Kindlefire_cult_of_mac

 

I’ve never personally seen ALASKA, but Amazon insiders have mentioned it to me and based on my pretty deep knowledge of Amazon, this looks to be the real deal:

  • ASIN number matches at the top
  • The core US FCs are listed on the left using airport like designators I’ve heard them use before.

It is unusual that Amazon would leak this information, clearly a) someone maybe on their way to getting fired or b) they are uncharacteristically so excited by the Fire sales so far they want to pop the balloon of the naysayers out there.

What does this mean?

Lots of folks on Wall St. thought I was crazy with my Q4 5m unit number so let’s ‘stress test’ that here.

  • This represents a pre-order rate of 50k/day (yes you can argue that may taper off, I’d argue it’s going to grow).
  • At this pace, Amazon will have 2.5m pre-orders before the ship date of 11/15
  • The original iPad sold 300k on it’s launch date and Amazon is set to get in front of that easily.
  • iPad2 had 2.5m units in it’s first month
  • Thus – Kindle Fire is on pace to be the largest tablet launch in history.  Not just lame existing Android tablets, iPad too!

So doing some math here, there are 90 days in Q4, which @ 50k/day would give you – 4.5m units sold.   Of course it won’t ‘work’ like that I think what we’ll see is:

  • 2.5m pre-orders or 11/15
  • Big marketing push, crazy low price point and buzz makes Kindle Fire a huge gift this holiday
  • You get another 3m orders between 11/15 and 12/19
  • 12/19-12/25 – pause for holidays
  • 12/26-12/30 – everyone that wanted a Fire, but got a tie, sweater or socks instead, orders one for themselves. 😉

Skeptics beware, this is going to be a very big game changer for Amazon and if they layer on top of this a 10″, it could be even bigger!

Scot, why are you so excited about this thing?

I’m a gadget freak (some would say geek?) and already have an iPad2, iPhone and some Android devices and a bunch of kindles as well.  So someone at work asked why I was excited.  I’m definitely excited about the software and the device itself, but as we have tons of retailers that sell on Amazon’s third-party marketplace here’s what gets me excited:

  • 5m people buy Fires
  • 2.5m are already Prime users and they use it to just buy more – bumping them from 3-4x to 4-5x
  • 2.5m are not in prime, 80% of them sign up
  • We have 2m new prime users, moving us from 12m to 2m (a 16-20% bump)
  • Those prime users make Amazon their default e-commerce store and they bring in an incremental surge in demand
  • That’s just Q4!!

My only regret is that Amazon doesn’t have a physical store I can go camp out at on November 15th.

SeekingAlpha Disclosure- I am long Amazon and Google. eBay is an investor in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.