Happy CyberMonday!!!

November 26, 2007

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving!  This is a pretty exciting time @ ChannelAdvisor as we’re at the start of another holiday shopping season.

The servers are really humming today (and even started last Thursday which was a little earlier than last year). My theory is that gas prices, mall crowding, 5am doorbusters, combined with great online offers have driven more consumers online for shopping.  We’re already seeing some really interesting trends and tomorrow we should have a full set of data on CyberMonday.

Consequently, we’re hosting a call with Bob Peck@Bear Stearns tomorrow to go through the results @ 2:30 EST.  The details are as follows:

Tuesday, November 27 @ 2:30pm ET/ 19:30 London

Dial In: 1-800-683-1535 (US); +1-973-633-6740 (outside US); Passcode:
9494579,  Replay available
thru 12/04/07

I hope you’re able to join us.

If you didn’t see it yet there were two datapoints of interest to ES Blog readers:

  • eBay sent out a very positive release about Black Friday here.  **138 Webkinz seals sold on eBay on Black Friday you’ll be happy to know.
  • Comscore – Comscore announced through a variety of media outlets that Black Friday online sales were up 22% from last year (note this datapoint explicitly did not count auctions/eBay interestingly enough).

Given all the holiday shopping excitement, many readers have posted/emailed asking about eBay’s stock not sharing in the enthusiasm.  If you don’t follow the stock, it has sold off post earnings announcement from the high 30’s/$40 to the $32-33 range as illustrated here.  I read all of the stock analyst reports on eBay and the Bull case is that the business is turning the corner and management has identified the problems and is set to fix them (finding 2.0, etc.)  The bear case is that listings are very anemic even given the promotions that are running.

Long-time readers know I use the medved (admittedly not 100% scientific) to graphically show listings.  Here’s a gander at 06 vs. 07:

Ebay_112607 What you notice looking at these lined up properly is that by this time last year (06 -the bottom chart) we had crested into the 19/20m range.  This year we are hovering around the 16m point.

I worry that the eBay pricing actions and competition over the last year have reduced the selection on eBay and that could have a negative impact on Q4 holiday sales (less stuff  = less sales).  I’m sure Bulls would argue that it’s just a shift to quality.  The only way Y2006_2we’ll know is by looking at the GMV numbers that eBay will publish in January with the Q4 results.  On tomorrow’s call we’ll go through some of what we’re seeing amongst our eBay customer base which we think is a pretty a) substantial and b) relevant dataset.  Readers what do you think?