New eMarketer Analyst Report: What the Global E-Commerce Forecast Holds for 2022

11 March, 2022

After a two-year e-commerce boom driven by unpredictable circumstances and unusual growth patterns, it seems online spending is expected to stabilize in 2022. Yet, “plenty of bright spots remain,” according to a new analyst report from eMarketer, presented by ChannelAdvisor: Global Ecommerce Forecast As 2-Year Boom Subsides, Plenty of Bright Spots Remain

The report forecasts global e-commerce trends for this year and beyond, paying special attention to which countries and regions will produce the most notable growth figures and where brands and retailers can find the new digital buyers set to come online this year. 

Looking Back to Look Forward

Overall, global retail e-commerce growth is set to slow considerably when compared to the growth rates of 2020 and 2021. Still, that lower growth rate will amount to more than half a trillion new e-commerce dollars every year.

New spending will still be huge. In just a few short years, digital shoppers will spend more than $7 trillion online — a number no one could’ve dreamed of 10 years ago when retail spending in total was just over $16 trillion. This indicates that even though e-commerce spending growth will decline in the coming years, it’s still growing faster than overall retail. In fact, e-commerce is set to account for more than 20% of total global retail this year.

The Big Players (and Rising Stars) of Global E-Commerce

China plays a big role in worldwide e-commerce figures since its market is heavily digital. Among the top 12 countries who will make up total worldwide e-commerce this year, China comes in first, with the U.S. in second in terms of total worldwide e-commerce. 

But the country’s digital transformation is also rapidly reaching a point of maturation, opening the playing field to new up-and-comers:

  • Southeast Asia will see the fastest e-commerce sales growth, with three countries setting the global pace in 2022. 
  • Latin America is vying for the no. 2 spot in e-commerce sales growth this year with double-digit change. 
  • In the Middle East and Africa, many markets are still in emerging high-growth phases that will outlast the pandemic era. 

What Does This Mean for Marketers?

While more digitally equipped markets are ultimately a good thing for e-commerce, the slowing growth rates mean marketers will have to look beyond the low-hanging fruit of the past few years, working harder to expand their audiences in other ways. But bright spots still remain, as marketers can capitalize on the fresh perspectives and open-mindedness of emerging markets.

Download the full eMarketer report to get more insights about its forecasts, including which countries will produce the most notable e-commerce growth figures through 2025, how brick-and-mortar will impact e-commerce and how much new spending to expect from digital buyers this year.

ChannelAdvisor is uniquely positioned to help you reach new global buyers because we support 300 global channels (check out all of the channels we support here). If you’re interested in expanding to new global markets this year, we’d love to talk with you.

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